By Rob Gray, Ph.D.

In our information-rich society, prior expectations are incredibly pervasive and powerful---we rarely if ever go into a situation without some type of anticipation about what we are about to experience. Information in our environment constantly generates expectations about upcoming events we will experience. A friend’s comments create pre-conceptions about a movie you are going to see on the weekend. A television commercial gets us all jazzed up about the new iPhone we are thinking of buying. A cigar review we recently read in a magazine, the price of a cigar, and manufacturer’s name all can predispose us to expect a certain flavor and burn quality when smoking a particular cigar. In this article, I will explore how expectation and anticipation can alter the cigar smoking experience and discuss the value of the commonly used practice of using blind reviews/ratings to evaluate cigars.

Founded on consumer psychology research, it has become quite clear that expectations based on brand information and packaging can have substantial effects on the perceived quality of consumable products. Whether based on the personal testimony of “average Joe,” or the professional testimony of “experts,” the effects of expectations on our perceptions can be powerful. In fact, these expectations can directly alter our sensations of odor and flavor. This phenomenon is often referred to as a “framing effect”.

Expectations Affect Perceptions of Flavor

Examples of how “framing” affects perceptions of flavor are plentiful in scientific literature. In a recent study, beer drinkers were asked to taste two types of beer and pick their favorite (Lee et al., 2006). One of the samples was Budweiser while the other was a home-brew with Balsamic vinegar added. For subjects that tasted the beers blind, about 60% preferred the beer with vinegar in it. On the other hand, only 18% of the subjects that were told the ingredients beforehand preferred the vinegar beer.

In a another study, subjects claimed that ground beef tasted less greasy when it was presented in a package that said “75% lean ground beef,” compared to packaging stating “25% fat ground beef”. Unknown to the subjects was the fact that both samples were exactly the same (Levin & Gaeth, 1988).

Finally, the perceived sweetness of orange juice changed when presented in a package with the word “Florida” and a picture of a sun as compared to a similar package without these features (Hoegg & Alba, 2007). Clearly, the manner in which a product is “framed” can directly alter the most basic taste sensations.

Factors that Influence our Perceptions of a Cigar

This previous research strongly suggests that our expectations about a cigar, generated by the information and context surrounding it, should dramatically affect the cigar’s perceived flavor and aroma, and the overall enjoyment we get from it (although this has not been directly investigated in experiments, to my knowledge). Further, there are a good many factors that can contribute expectations to our cigar smoking experience.

Below, I have listed some of the factors that contribute to the expectations about a cigar before lighting it up. Note that this list does not include factors directly related to the tobacco itself (e.g., the color of the wrapper), nor does it state whether the expectations generated from these factors will be good or bad.

1. 1. Manufacturer name
   

2. 2. Aesthetics of the packaging (box and/or band)
   

3. 3. Price
   

4. 4. Rarity
   

5. 5. Knowledge of production methods
   

6. 6. Your previous experiences with the cigar
   

7. 7. Others experiences with the cigar (e.g., friends comments, magazine reviews/ratings)
   

8. 8. Advertisements for the cigar
   

The key point here is that expectations generated by some or all of these factors are an integral part of normal cigar smoking that cannot be separated from the sensations produced by our senses of taste and smell. Whether we are willing to admit it or not expectations have an extremely powerful effect on our sensory experiences!

Should we “Go Blind”?

Using expectations to guide our perceptions of the quality of cars, dish soap, or cigars, is a normal practice. Most of us have used some or all of the factors mentioned above, to guide us in our selection of cigars to purchase. Although expectations are ubiquitous in our everyday life, it is interesting that the common practice of blind cigar tasting is an attempt to portray those expectations as being negative (e.g., a “bias” or “prejudice”) and that they must be somehow eliminated. The primary method that has been used to eliminate the “contaminating” effects of expectations on our sensory experiences is to present the product “blind”, that is, to remove all possible cues to its identity. Although the “blind method” has and continues to be used successfully in several areas (e.g., drug research), it has also been employed in some areas where it’s supporting logic and effectiveness is questionable. I would argue that one such area is cigar reviewing/rating.

As most cigar smokers know, several cigar magazines and Internet sites currently utilize blind cigar reviews/ratings. But are they really the best method for evaluating and reviewing cigars? Let’s consider the cigar that perhaps produces the strongest prior expectations in cigar smokers, the Fuente Opus X, to examine the logic behind the use of blind reviews/ratings.

Before putting fire to an Opus X most cigar smokers will have several prior conceptions about it. For example, if you are a big fan of Fuente products you might expect the cigar to have complex and rich flavors with a perfect draw and burn. These positive expectations may be further enhanced by your knowledge of the Opus X’s price and rarity (perceived quality of a product is strongly related to it’s cost and supply), knowledge of it’s novel production methods and aging (e.g., use of Cognac barrels and the unique rolling method), the artistic quality of it’s band, and the high rating scores it has received.

Alternately, you could have negative expectations about the Opus X. If you have been told that it is completely over-hyped and not worth the money you might anticipate that is flavors will not be that great. Supporters of the use of blind reviews/ratings would argue that these very strong expectations surrounding the Opus X distort the perception of the characteristics that are most important in cigar smoking (e.g., flavor, aroma, construction, and burn quality), and thus, a true quality score for this cigar can only be given if these expectations are removed. Furthermore, they would contend that in order for the Opus X to be fairly compared with the scores for cigars that produce fewer expectations (e.g., a new cigar on the market) it is necessary to “level the playing field” by eliminating any expectations. If it was found that the Opus X scored a lot higher than a new $5 cigar in a non-blind rating (e.g., Opus X=95, New cigar=89) than it did in a blind-rating (e.g., Opus X=90, New cigar=90), this outcome would provide further evidence that expectations influence cigar reviews/ratings and that they must be removed by presenting the cigars blind. So, are blind cigar reviews the best way to evaluate a cigar? From this little example, the logic for their use seems to be ironclad.

Despite the attractiveness and apparent success of blind cigar reviews and ratings, I believe that the logic for their use is inherently flawed. First let me say that I am not questioning the ability of blind reviewing to remove the effects of expectation from the cigar smoking experience—blind reviews definitely do this very well. The problem with blind reviews/ratings to me is that we should not be trying to remove expectations when evaluating a cigar in the first place.

The ‘Value’ of Blind Cigar Tasting

The purpose of a cigar rating is to give readers an indication of the relative level of enjoyment and satisfaction (as compared to other cigars that have been reviewed) they would get if there were to obtain the cigar and smoke it themselves. In other words, cigar reviews and ratings provide guidelines that are meant to help the reader select a cigar that will be smoked in the normal, non-blind way where the person is fully aware of which cigar they are smoking and has the expectations associated with this knowledge. Therefore, blind reviews/ratings attempt to predict the quality of the cigar smoking experience that will occur in an expectation-filled environment (normal smoking) through scores generated in an unnatural expectation-free environment. And, given the powerful interactions between expectations and flavor/aroma perception found in the research described above, these two environments will likely produce completely different sensory experiences. This to me is the fatal flaw with blind reviews.

To further illustrate this point let’s return the hypothetical rating scores for the Opus X and a new $5 cigar discussed above (i.e., non-blind: Opus X=95, New cigar=89/ blind: Opus X=90, New cigar=90). What implications do equal scores in blind ratings have for the reader that is looking for guidance in purchasing a cigar? If two cigars have equal blind ratings does that mean the reader should not bother wasting their money on the more expensive cigar (the Opus X in this example) because a cheaper cigar gives the same level of enjoyment? That would be a logical conclusion to draw from the blind ratings in the example above, given that both received exactly the same score. But the problem is that, although the blind ratings suggest that the two cigars will give an equal smoking experience, this does not tell us what will happen in a “real-world” environment, where the cigars are smoked in a normal, non-blind, expectation-filled setting. In fact, the non-blind rating scores in the hypothetical example suggest that if the reader were to purchase the two cigars and smoke them at home or their local B&M they would likely get much more enjoyment out of the Opus X (in large part due to the expectations associated with it) than they would get from the new $5 cigar. The conclusion drawn from the blind ratings (i.e., equal quality) is completely erroneous in this situation because expectations are a major component of normal cigar smoking. Whether we want to admit it or not, the expectation factors associated with an Opus X (e.g., rarity, price, knowledge of production methods, etc) make it a more enjoyable cigar for most cigar smokers. Expectations do not “contaminate” or “bias” the cigar smoking experience, on the contrary, they typically augment and enhance it. Thus, they should be taken into account when reviewing and rating a cigar.

So do blind reviews/ratings serve any purpose at all? To me their only real value is as a novelty game that allows a cigar smoker to test their ability to recognize different types of tobaccos (e.g., different countries, different seeds) and to see if they can identify a cigar they have smoked before from memory. Beyond that, I believe they are inferior to non-blind reviews/ratings. In fact, I would argue that reviewers should be given as much information about the cigar as possible. Because expectations are a major part of normal cigar smoking, they should be present at the time of reviewing. Doing blind cigar reviews and ratings is in some ways analogous to reviewing steak houses by having them send you unlabeled samples in Styrofoam containers. Although this would allow you to compare the flavors of the steak in an expectation-free environment it would be of little value in predicting which steak house you would enjoy the most because that depends on numerous other factors (price, ambience, presentation, etc). These critical expectations generate strong perceptions that will directly influence the flavor you get from the steak.

References:

Hoegg, J. & Alba, J. W. (2007). Taste perception: More than meets the tongue. Journal of Consumer Research, 33, 490-498.

Lee, L., S. Frederick, et al. (2006). Try it, you'll like it: The influence of expectation, consumption, and revelation on preferences for beer. Psychological Science, 17, 1054-1058.

Levin, I. P., & Gaeth, G. J. (1988). How consumers are affected by the framing of attribute information before and after consuming the product. Journal of Consumer Research, 15, 374-378.

Rob Gray is Stogie Fresh’s resident “Cigar Science Guy.” He is an educator, researcher and writer. Rob conducts research in Human Factors Psychology at Arizona State University.

Rob is a regular contributor to the Stogie Fresh Cigar Journal.